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2016 policy outlook: Hedge funds and private equity in the crosshairs
December 14, 2015--As the calendar turns to 2016 and an election cycle looms, politically charged rhetoric is once again pouring down on the capital markets.
Congressional leaders, federal regulators and both major parties' presidential candidates are ramping up their scrutiny of financial institutions and investment managers. But of all the pieces that comprise Wall Street, the alternative asset management sector faces the greatest challenges heading into the New Year.
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Source: The Hill
Hedging EM: No Benefit At A High Cost
December 14, 2015-Popularity of hedging currency risk for U.S. investors. As the U.S. dollar has strengthened over the last four years, hedging currency risk for international investments in Europe and Japan has become a popular strategy for U.S. investors.
Notwithstanding, we do not believe it is a good strategy to hedge currency risk in emerging markets (EM) for two reasons.
First, there has been no return benefit from hedging emerging markets. Over the past 16 years (12/31/1999-11/30/2015) hedging EM equities investments (MSCI EM Index) would have helped in 8 years and hurt in 8 years, with an average benefit of 0.0%.
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Source: Emerging Global Advisors
AdvisorShares Weekly Market Update-Wasn't Cheaper Crude Supposed To Be A Good Thing?
December 14, 2015--For the week of December 7- December 11
Macro
There was market coverage over the weekend blaming equity declines on falling crude prices, it fell 10% for
the week, and other coverage blaming retail sales which, for the tenth month in 12 this year came in short of
expectations, concerns over the FOMC meeting next week are probably not helping and of course it is possible
the market went down for no reason in particular.
But down it did go. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.27%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.79%, the NASDAQ slid 4.05%
and the Russell 2000 coughed up 5.04%.
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Source: AdvisorShares
Morgan Stanley-US ETF Weekly Update
December 14, 2015--Weekly Flows:
$3.0 Billion Net Inflows
Tenth Consecutive Week of Net Inflows, Totaling $70.6 Billion
High-conviction ETF Recommendations Slide: No Changes
ETF Assets Stand at $2.1 Trillion, up 5% YTD
Two ETF Launches Last Week
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
ETFs posted net inflows of $3.0 bln last week; tenth consecutive week of net inflows, totaling $70.6 bln
Last week's net inflows were led by International-Developed ETFs at $1.7 bln; conversely, Fixed Income ETFs posted outflows of $1.5 bln, the most of any category we measured
Eleven of the 15 categories we measured posted net inflows last week
ETFs have generated net inflows 37 of 50 weeks YTD-ETF assets stand at $2.1 tln, up 5% YTD
13-week flows remain positive among most asset classes; combined $86.7 bln in net inflows
US Large-Cap ETFs have posted $27.6 bln in net inflows over the last 13 weeks, the most of any segment that we measured and significantly more than the next largest category, International-Developed ETFs, at $15.4 bln in net inflows
Commodity and Leveraged/Inverse ETFs are the two areas of the ETF market to have exhibited net outflows over the last 13 weeks, at a combined $515 mln
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) posted net inflows of $887 mln last week, leading all ETFs
Over the last 13 weeks, EFA has generated $2.5 bln in net inflows as international developed market equity demand, on average, remains strong
The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had a combined $1.1 bln in net inflows last week
Despite a decline in energy prices last week, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), the largest energy ETF, posted net inflows of $526 mln
Conversely, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) had a combined $1.4 bln in net outflows last week; interestingly, over the last 13 weeks, JNK and HYG have exhibited net inflows of $3.1 bln
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had another difficult week, posting net outflows of $2.9 bln; historically, SPY generates robust net inflows during the fourth quarter of the year, but has exhibited net outflows seven of the last eight weeks totaling $5.4 bln
US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume was down in November to 25% relative to October's 26% reading; over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume averaged 27%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume was up $23 bln last week compared to the prior week and is 17% above its 13-week average amid a spike in equity market volatility
US Large-Cap ETFs accounted for 44% of US-listed trading volume last week and compares to the category's 25% market cap share
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Source: Morgan Stanley
'Cannibal' exchange traded funds embraced by active managers
December 12, 2015--Over the past decade many active fund houses avoided the rapidly expanding exchange traded fund industry due to fears they would cannibalise their own businesses.
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Source: FT.com
SEC Proposes New Derivatives Rules for Registered Funds and Business Development Companies
December 11, 2015--The Securities and Exchange Commission today voted to propose a new rule designed to enhance the regulation of the use of derivatives by registered investment companies, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and closed-end funds, as well as business development companies.
The proposed rule would limit funds' use of derivatives and require them to put risk management measures in place which would result in better investor protections.
view the white paper-Use of Derivatives by Registered Investment Companies
Source: SEC.gov
This Week's IPO Calendar from Renaissance Capital
December 11, 2015--Renaissance Capital's IPO Calendar for the Week of 12/14/2015.
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Source: Renaissance Capital
Initial NextSharesTM Fund Registration Statements Declared Effective by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
December 11, 2015--NextShares Solutions LLC (NextShares Solutions) today announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has declared effective the registration statements of 18 NextSharesTM funds (Funds) sponsored by Eaton Vance Management (Eaton Vance).
The Funds represent a broad range of actively managed investment strategies, including equity, fixed income, floating-rate income, absolute return and multi-asset funds. They are the first NextShares funds to complete the SEC registration statement process.
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Source: Eaton Vance Corp.
UPDATE 3-U.S. fund sector fears SEC proposal on derivatives may hurt ETFs
December 11, 2015--Securities and Exchange Commission proposal to clamp down on how funds use derivatives has industry officials worried that some exchange-traded funds may have to close or change their investment strategy.
The rule proposed on Friday would require funds to hold cash reserves to cover potential future losses on derivatives.
Funds could agree to limit their derivatives exposure to 150 percent of net assets, or, if they passed a separate risk test, keep derivatives exposure as high as 300 percent of net assets.
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Source: Reuters
Macro Insight Group-December FOMC Preview: What Comes Next?
December 11, 2015--What will happen at the December FOMC meeting?
Our longstanding expectation for a December "apologetic increase" will come to pass
The rate of interest on excess reserves will be increased by 25bps to 0.50%
The ON reverse repo rate will be increased by 20bps to 0.25%
This has been our base case for Fed liftoff for more than a year
Statement will formalize FOMC's strong bias for a slow and gradual pace
Uncertain outlook abroad leaves open the timing of next increase
Forecast revisions to the SEP will lower the trajectory of policy rates slightly
What do investors need to know?
Economy
Upside surprises to headline inflation in early 2016
Headline inflation will rise slowly in early 2016, in line with FOMC forecasts, but higher than market-based measures indicate today.
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Source: Macro Insight Group
