WTO-Trade imbalances and the limits of trade policy
you are currently viewing::WTO-Trade imbalances and the limits of trade policyJuly 31, 2025--Trade imbalances have long been a concern for policymakers, prompting calls for corrective trade measures. Recent tariff actions- framed in part as efforts to reduce bilateral deficits -fit this established pattern. Notable precedents include the United States-Japan trade tensions of the 1980s and the global imbalance debates following the 2008 financial crisis. The connection is not merely anecdotal: empirical research shows that trade imbalances, particularly at the bilateral level, are strong predictors of trade action. Interpreting trade imbalances From an economic perspective, trade imbalances are not necessarily problematic. Sectoral imbalances arise from specialization: a country with a comparative advantage in services may run a surplus in services and a deficit in goods. Aggregate imbalances, in turn, reflect differences between national saving and investment. If a country invests more than it saves, the additional investment goods must come from abroad. From this perspective, trade imbalances are not signs of dysfunction, but channels through which economies realize the gains from trade, across sectors and over time. While trade imbalances can therefore reflect healthy economic forces, they are not immune to policy distortion. Tariffs can alter sectoral trade patterns, reducing the deficit in a targeted sector at the expense of other sectors. They can also distort bilateral flows, narrowing the deficit with a targeted partner while widening it with others. Industrial policy, now central to many policy debates, can have similar effects. Long-run broad-based industrial policy intervention can significantly influence the allocation of resources across sectors, often promoting tradable manufacturing over non-tradable services. Source: World Trade Organization (WTO) |
February 26, 2026-Three charts mapping our projections for passenger aviation demand as of the end of 2025.
Here is the outlook as of the end of 2025:
Annual air travel demand returned to pre-pandemic levels last year, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)-the number of paying passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled-reaching nearly 107% of 2019 volume. The 2040 outlook remains relatively unchanged at a global level compared with previous forecasts.
February 18, 2026--Diversification has become harder since 2020 as stocks and bonds tend to move in tandem during sharp selloffs, adding to financial stability concerns
Spreading investments across asset classes can reduce risk and smooth returns. The classic diversification between stocks and bonds worked historically because they moved in opposite directions.
February 18, 2026--During the week of 9 February, the global ETF industry recorded strong product activity, with 49 new ETF launches and four closures, resulting in a net increase of 45 products worldwide according to research from ETFGI.
The United States led net growth with 22 new launches, followed by APAC (excluding Japan) with 13 and Europe with nine.
February 11, 2026--China, Poland, and Türkiye were the largest gold buyers among central banks between 2020 and 2025.
Gold prices surged more than 230% over the period, fueling one of the strongest official-sector buying waves in decades.
A smaller group of countries reduced holdings, highlighting divergent reserve strategies.
January 25, 2026--The European Union accounted for 18.8% of all U.S. trade in the first 10 months of 2025, valued at $883.3 billion .
China ranks as America's fourth-largest trading partner, with U.S. imports declining 26.7%, given rising tensions.
U.S. bilateral trade reached $4.7 trillion between January and October 2025, in a volatile year for trade policy.
January 22, 2026--ETFGI reports Actively Managed ETFs Hit Record US$1.92Tr as 2025 Marks Highest‑Ever Inflows and 69th Consecutive Month of Growth.
January 22, 2026--ETFGI reports Actively Managed ETFs Hit Record US$1.92Tr as 2025 Marks Highest-Ever Inflows and 69th Consecutive Month of Growth. During December the actively managed ETFs industry globally gathered net inflows of US$56.23 billion, bringing 2025 net inflows to a record US$637.47 billion, according to ETFGI's December 2025 Active ETF industry landscape insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service.
January 19, 2026-But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time
Global economic growth continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty.