ESG and Of Interest News
How Animal Spirits Affect the Economy
March 3, 2025—Viral narratives could be the missing link between emotions and economic fluctuations
Storytelling is central to how we interpret economic events. We recall economic history through haunting images of anxious crowds waiting to take money out of banks during the Great Depression or dejected office workers carrying cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
We gauge inflation by comparing shopping baskets with friends and family. We grapple with the consequences of artificial intelligence by channeling our hopes and fears into science fiction.
Storytelling is central to how we interpret economic events. We recall economic history through haunting images of anxious crowds waiting to take money out of banks during the Great Depression or dejected office workers carrying cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers in 2008. We gauge inflation by comparing shopping baskets with friends and family. We grapple with the consequences of artificial intelligence by channeling our hopes and fears into science fiction.
But do stories themselves influence the economy? This idea has a long precedent in economic thought. John Maynard Keynes wrote extensively about how "animal spirits"-nstincts and emotions that influence behavior-prompt people's economic actions, like spending or investing in businesses. He argued that these herd emotional urges lie at the heart of economic booms and busts.
Taking this idea one step further, Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University, has pushed for a more detailed study of economic narratives-the contagious stories that shape how individuals view the economy and make decisions. Shiller hypothesizes that sufficiently popular narratives can go viral and have society-wide impact (Shiller 2020).
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Source: IMF.org
Trump's latest global tariffs, announced on a self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day', will likely cause sharp short-term trade declines-and a significant surge in inflation for the US
March 3, 2025—On 2 April 2025 - his self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day' - President Donald Trump once again announced new tariffs. This time, all US trade partners will face a minimum 'discounted reciprocal tariff' of 10%. For countries with trade surpluses deemed guilty of 'currency manipulation and trade barriers', tariffs could rise to nearly 50%. Southeast Asian export-driven economies will particularly be affected. Major trading partners-such as China (34%), the EU (20%) and Japan (24%)-will face intermediate rates, although they are extremely high by historical standards.
Regarding China, the official White House communication is unclear, but Trump's press secretary indicated that these new tariffs are in addition to previously imposed and announced measures. The UK and several other countries will be subject to the 'baseline' 10% tariff. For Canada and Mexico, the situation is more complex, as previous fentanyl- and migration-related tariffs will remain in effect. Additionally, tariffs on goods already targeted (e.g. steel, aluminium and cars) will stay in place. Exemptions include inter alia copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber as well as energy imports and certain minerals that are not available in the US.
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Source: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
WTO and OECD release expanded dataset on trade in services covering over 200 economiess
February 17, 2025-New data on bilateral trade in services covering over 200 economies from 2005 to 2023 was released by the WTO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on 17 February.
The Balanced Trade in Services (BaTIS) dataset, available on the WTO Global Services Trade Data Hub, provides insights into trade in 26 services sectors, covering digitally deliverable services , total commercial services and other breakdowns. Interactive data visualizations allow users to customize the information provided.
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Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index
Policy Trends up to 2025
February 12, 2025- Abstract
The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) provides annually updated, comparable information on regulations affecting trade in services across 51 countries and 22 sectors from 2014 to 2024.
The OECD's quantification of services regimes across countries and over time seeks to inform the decisions of policy makers and regulators, to convey transparent and accessible information to exporters, and to provide a source of data for academic research on drivers and impediments to services trade.
This report highlights key policy developments up to 2025 and the latest trends affecting services trade. It also indicates best practices and the countries that lead in services reforms.
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Source: OECD
The Economic Costs of Temperature Uncertainty
January 24, 2025--Summary
Beyond its environmental damage, climate change is predicted to produce significant economic costs. Combining novel high-frequency geospatial temperature data from satellites with measures of economic activity for the universe of US listed firms, this article examines a potentially important channel through which global warming can lead to economic costs: temperature uncertainty.
The results show that temperature uncertainty-by increasing power outages, reducing labor productivity, and increasing the degree of exposure of firms to environmental and non-political risks, as well as economic uncertainty at the firm-level-persistently reduce firms' investment and sales. This effect varies across firms, with those characterized by tighter financial constraints being disproportionally more affected.
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Source: imf.org
Uranium: Canada aims to become World's Biggest Uranium Producer as demand soars!
January 8, 2025--Canada is racing to become the world's biggest uranium producer as prices for the radioactive metal surge in response to soaring demand for emissions-free nuclear power and geopolitical tensions threaten supplies.
Cameco, the country's largest producer, said that production of uranium would jump by almost a third in 2024 to 37mn pounds at its two mines in the heartland of the country's uranium industry in northern Saskatchewan.
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Source: Metals and Miners
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025-Second Edition
January 7, 2025--Global cooperation is at a crossroads. While overall collaboration has flatlined, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and instability, positive momentum in areas of climate and nature, innovation and technology, and health and wellness offer hope.
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 offers a comprehensive assessment of global collaboration broadly and across five pillars: trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security.
By analysing 41 indicators, the report identifies areas of progress and stagnation, highlighting the complexities of cooperation in a world marked by economic uncertainty, geopolitical divides and rapid technological advancements.
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Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
New database on critical minerals trade launched to support clean energy transition
December 18, 2024-The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the WTO Secretariat have jointly launched a database on trade in critical minerals to enhance transparency regarding these minerals and to support the clean energy transition. The database provides information on trade flows, allows visualizations of trade networks and specialization patterns and compiles data on tariffs and other trade policies for 250 critical minerals and related products across value chains.
The Trade in Critical Minerals (TiCM) database, unveiled by the ADB and the WTO Secretariat on 20 November at the Trade and Investment House at the COP29 climate change conference in Baku, provides in one place up-to-date critical minerals trade data, related policies, and visualisations of trade patterns based on publicly available sources.
Bilateral trade and tariff data are at the HS sub‑heading level and are sourced from WTO Analytical Databases. Trade policies are sourced from the WTO Trade Monitoring Database and the ePing trade measures platform, with links to HS codes. Data can be visualised as bar charts, tree maps, and network graphs, providing insights into the main trading partners, product specialization, and trade networks.
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Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
The World's Oldest Bond Just Celebrated Its 400th Birthday And Still Pays an 13.64 Euro Annual Yield
December 16, 2024--On December 10,1624, a Dutch water authority issued a bond to fund repairs for a critical dike breach. Four centuries later,that bond is still alive,making it the oldest bond in the world. This perpetual bond, issued by Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams, continues to pay interest, reminding us of the enduring power of financial innovation.
The 400th-anniversary celebration saw representatives of the bond's current owner, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), receive an interest payment of €299.42 in Utrecht, Netherlands. Despite the modest annual yield of €13.64, the bond is a testament to the Dutch mastery of financial systems, which played a pivotal role in shaping modern markets.
The Origins of the World's Oldest Bond
In 1624, the Netherlands faced a devastating dike breach along the River Lek, threatening Amsterdam and surrounding areas. To fund the necessary repairs, Hoogheemraadschap Lekdijk Bovendams issued more than 50 perpetual bonds, raising 23, 000 Carolus guilders.
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Source: thecapitalist.com
Merchandise trade continues to expand in third quarter of 2024
December 13, 2024-World merchandise trade volume rose 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 3.3% year-on-year, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the third quarter of 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of moderate trade expansion.
By comparison, merchandise trade in current US dollar terms was up 4.3% year-on-year in Q3. This represents a significant improvement from the 1.8% increase seen in Q2 and the 1.4% contraction observed in Q1.
For the year through September, trade volume was up 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, slightly less than the WTO's most recent forecast of 2.7% for 2024issued on 10 October.
Meanwhile, the value of merchandise trade was up 1.6% over 2023. Slower trade growth in value terms than in volume terms implies a small (less than 1%) decline in prices of traded goods during this period.
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Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
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