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IMF Working Paper-The Internationalization of China's Equity Markets
February 10, 2023--Summary:
China's equity markets internationalization process started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms' shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors.
This paper studies the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for: (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not.
The paper finds large increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed and for connected firms, with significant aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests the rise in firms' equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. International investors' portfolio holdings in Chinese equity markets and ownership in firms increased markedly only once Chinese firms' locally issued shares became part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
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Source: imf.org
China's Economy is Rebounding, But Reforms Are Still Needed
February 3, 2023--Sustaining the recovery will require both monetary and fiscal support as well as accelerated structural reforms
China's economy is set to rebound this year as mobility and activity pick up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, providing a boost to the global economy.
The economy will expand 5.2 percent this year, according to our latest projections, versus 3 percent last year.
That's good news for China and the world as the Chinese economy is now expected to contribute a quarter of global growth this year.
Even so, China still faces significant economic challenges. The contraction in real estate remains a major headwind, and there is still some uncertainty around the evolution of the virus. Longer-term, headwinds to growth include a shrinking population and slowing productivity growth.
Accordingly, as we note in our annual report for China, the economy needs comprehensive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to secure the recovery and promote balanced, green, and inclusive growth.
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Source: imf.org
IMF Staff Country Report-Australia: Selected Issues
February 1, 2023--INFLATION AND WAGE DYNAMICS IN AUSTRALIA1
Australia, like other advanced economies, is witnessing high inflation that has become broad-based, though wage pressures in Australia have so far been contained.
Although wages in Australia are less
sensitive to labor market tightness compared with other economies, the tight labor market conditions are likely to feed into higher wages in the future, as evidenced by a robust Phillips curve relationship and business surveys pointing to emerging pressures.
The RBA needs to remain vigilant, continuing to tighten policy to rebalance demand and supply, and ensuring that inflation expectations and wage pressures remain contained.
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Source: imf.org
Betashares Australian ETF Review: End of 2022 Review & Month of December 2022
January 18, 2023--End of 2022 Review: A port in the storm in 2022
In a highly turbulent year in financial markets, the ETF industry continued to take in new money from investors, even as asset values declined, making it one of the few bright spots in a very hard year for the broader asset management industry.
Exchanged Traded Funds Market cap
Australian Exchange Traded Funds Market Cap(ASX + CBOE): $133.7B
Market cap growth (decline) for year: -2%, -$3.2B
Comment: In total the Australian ETF industry received $13.5B of net inflows, in a year where the unlisted funds industry sustained net outflows of -$26.8B, marking the worst year on record for Australian managed funds1. The ETF industry's positive net flows were, however, not enough to combat the asset value declines caused by falling share and bond markets, and, as a result the industry itself fell in value by 2%.
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Source: betashares.com.au
Asia's Productivity Needs a Boost That Digitalization Can Provide
January 9, 2022--Amid slowing global growth, promoting technological adoption and closing digital divides can help the region boost aggregate productivity and economic output
Asia's strong economic rebound from the pandemic is losing steam as tightening financial conditions, reduced export demand, and China’s sharp and uncharacteristic slowdown dim the outlook.
More broadly, deep economic scars from the pandemic and the lackluster productivity growth that preceded it are weighing on the region’s longer-term growth prospects. But despite these challenges, we see a promising path for boosting Asia’s productivity that runs through a landscape in which it has a history of leadership: digitalization.
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Source: IMF.org
Accelerating Innovation and Digitalization in Asia to Boost Productivity
January 9, 2023-Abstract
COVID-19 hit on the back of weakening productivity growth in many advanced and emerging Asian countries, a trend that could be exacerbated by the pandemic. Interestingly, productivity growth in the region was slowing even amid increased innovation effort, as proxied by spending on research and development (R&D) and number of patents. A key element underpinning this disconnect is the growing dispersion in productivity growth, innovation effort, and digitalization across and within sectors.
Asia has risen to become an innovation powerhouse, contributing to more than half of world patents. The rise of Asia as an innovation hub has been driven by a few frontier countries that have experienced a sharp increase in digital and computer-related patents, supported by solid R&D spending and a large share of researchers in the labor force. Within countries, R&D has become more concentrated in a smaller share of firms in frontier Asia. Empirical evidence using firm-level data highlight that the high concentration in R&D is associated with large dispersion in productivity. External exposure to competition and innovation, including through trade, supports innovation and help close productivity gaps for firms closer to the frontier. Non-frontier Asian developing countries have benefited from technology diffusion through a higher share of imported high-technology goods and by granting more patents to non-residents, supported by improvements in human capital and digital infrastructure.
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Source: imf.org
China: Domestic and External Conditions are Leading to a Weakened Economic Outlook
December 20, 2022-Increasing vaccinations among most at risk, and access to effective COVID-19 treatments key for safer reopening
Economic activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic-outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries.
Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.7 percent this year, before recovering to 4.3 percent in 2023, amid a reopening of the economy, according to Navigating Uncertainty, the latest China Economic Updatereleased today by the World Bank.
"Continued adaptation of China's COVID-19 policy will be crucial, both to mitigate public health risks and to minimize further economic disruption," said Mara Warwick, World Bank Country Director for China, Mongolia and Korea. "Accelerated efforts on public health preparedness, including efforts to increase vaccinations especially among high-risk groups, could enable a safer and less disruptive re-opening."
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Source: worldbank.org
Hong Kong launches first crypto ETFs
December 16, 2022--Fund products part of city's push to overtake rival Singapore as Asia's digital asset hub
Hong Kong launched its first two exchange traded funds for cryptocurrency futures on Friday, following through on a commitment made in October to turn the city into a regional digital asset hub rivalling Singapore.
The ETFs made slight gains on their debut, after raising almost $79mn in initial investment. CSOP Asset Management'’s bitcoin futures and ether futures ETFs raised $58.9mn and $19.7mn, respectively, ahead of their listings, the Hong Kong-based group said in a statement. The ETFs allow investors in the city access to cryptocurrency futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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Source: ft.com
Indonesia's Economy Sees Rebound in 2022 following Post-Covid Reopening
December 15, 2022--Delivering on Indonesia's Trade Potential Could Boost Long-Term Growth, Economic Transformation
Indonesia is projected to experience strong growth of 5.2 percent in 2022 thanks to the post-COVID-19 reopening of the economy and commodity price rises, with growth expected to be maintained on average at 4.9 percent over the medium term (2023-25), the World Bank said in a report released today.
Indonesia's economic conditions have remained stable amid global shocks, according to the latest edition of the Indonesia Economic Prospects. Although inflation has picked up, reaching 5.7 percent year-on-year in October, and food prices increased by 7.9 percent year-on-year in September, inflation is projected to peak in 2023 at 4.5 percent and is expected to remain at Bank Indonesia’s upper bound target at an average of 3.5 percent over 2024 and 2025.
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Source: worldbank.org
Thailand Economic Monitor: Fiscal Policy for a Resilient and Equitable Future
December 14, 2022--Key Findings
Thailand's economy has shown resilience to recent global shocks, with output surpassing its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2022.
Economic growth accelerated to 4.5% in the third quarter of this year fueled by resurgent private consumption and strong tourism inflows.
Tourism arrivals reached 45% of the pre-pandemic level in September, surpassing those in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Despite higher revenue from tourism, the current account deficit reached 5.7% of GDP in the third quarter of 2022 due to structurally large net oil imports and a cyclical deterioration in the goods trade balance.
Price pressures remained elevated, with headline inflation at 6% registering second highest among major ASEAN economies and have broadened to core inflation.
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Source: worldbank.com
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