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OFR-Working Papers-Measuring the Unmeasurable: An Application of Uncertainty Quantification to Financial Portfolios
October 1, 2015--Uncertainty is a crucial factor in financial stability, but it is notoriously difficult to measure. This working paper extends techniques from engineering to quantify,fundamental economic uncertainty, and applies the method to an example of portfolio stress testing.
By this measure, uncertainty peaked in late 2008.
view the Measuring the Unmeasurable: An Application of Uncertainty Quantification to Financial Portfolios
Source: Office of Financial Research
CBOE Holdings Reports September 2015 Trading Volume
October 1, 2015--CBOE Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBOE) reported today that total trading volume in September for options contracts on Chicago Board Options Exchange(R) (CBOE(R)) and C2 Options Exchange (C2) and futures contracts on
Chicago Board Options Exchange(R)(CBOE(R)) and C2 Options Exchange (C2) and futures contracts on CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE(R)) was 104.0 million contracts, a decrease of 5 percent from September 2014 and 17 percent from August 2015.
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Source: CBOE
BATS Global Markets Launches the BATS ETF Marketplace, Redefining the ETF Industry with Innovative Benefits for Issuers, Market Makers, Investors
BATS,the #1 Market for ETP Trading on Exchange with 45% Market Share", Unveils Incentive Programs
October 1, 2015--BATS Global Markets (BATS), the #1 U.S. market for the trading of exchange-traded products (ETPs), today unveiled the BATS ETF Marketplace, a market specifically structured and designed for ETF issuers and their investors.
The unveiling of the BATS ETF Marketplace-ETFMarketplace.com- underscores the company's complete and unique commitment to the listing and trading of exchange-traded products. With this initiative, BATS introduces the BATS ETF Issuer Incentive program and the BATS Lead Market Maker program.
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Source: BATS Global Markets, Inc.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Q3 2015 Performance Report Card
October 1, 2015-The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended September at 16,284.70-down 1,538.37 points year to date for a -8.63% return. Q3 2015 was the worst calendar quarter since Q3 2011.
Leader & Laggard-Nike (NKE) was the biggest contributor during Q3; Goldman Sachs (GS) was the biggest detractor.
Industry Performance-the Consumer Goods industry was the best (and, frankly, only) contributor during the period; Industrials the worst.
Worst Day (In Points & Percent)-down 588.40 points or -3.57% -on August 24th. While bad-the worst 1 day loss since August 2011-it could have been worse: the DJIA was down over 1,000 points in early trading before recovering.
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Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
CFTC Orders Deutsche Bank AG to Pay a $2.5 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Swaps Reporting Violations and Related Supervision Failures
September 30, 2015--The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an Order filing and simultaneously settling charges against Deutsche Bank AG, a global banking and financial services company and provisionally registered Swap Dealer, for failing to properly
report its swaps transactions from in or about January 2013 until July 2015.
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Source: CFTC.gov
Index in works to hedge exposure to Fannie, Freddie bonds
September 30, 2015--Vista Capital Advisors plans to offer an index for hedging the credit risk transfer bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"We hope to have a cash index established this year," said Dick MacWilliams, a co-founder of Vista.
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Source: SmartBrief
Fee Rate Advisory #2 for Fiscal Year 2016
September 30, 2015-- When fiscal year 2016 starts on October 1, 2015, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not expect to have received a regular appropriation for FY 2016.
Accordingly, the fees paid under Section 31 of the Securities Exchange Act will remain at their current rate until 60 days after the enactment of a regular appropriation for the SEC.
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Source: SEC.gov
DOL deputy assistant secretary expects revisions to fiduciary rule
September 29, 2015--A record amount of feedback on the Department of Labor's proposed conflict-of=interest rule will be reflected in the final version, said Timothy Hauser, deputy assistant secretary of labor for program operations, at the National Press Club on Tuesday.
Addressing an Investment Management Consultants Association gathering, Mr. Hauser said, "I have little doubt that the rule is going to change."
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Source: Pensions & Investments
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Launches First ActiveBeta(R)Exchange-Traded Fund
ETF Series to Track Factor-Driven Index-Representing a Next Generation of ETF Investing
September 29, 2015--On October 21, 2015, Goldman Sachs Asset Management ("GSAM") announced the launch of its first exchange-traded fund ("ETF"), the ActiveBeta(R)US Large Cap Equity ETF (ticker:GSLC).
The fund is the first in a series of ETFs that will track GSAM's proprietary ActiveBeta® index
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Source: MarketWatch
Morgan Stanley-US ETF Weekly Update
September 28, 2015--US ETF Weekly Update
Weekly Flows: $7.7 Billion Net Outflows
ETFs Have Exhibited Net Outflows Seven of the Last 13 Weeks
High-conviction ETF Recommendations Slide: No Changes
ETF Assets Stand at $2.0 Trillion, Flat YTD
Eight ETF Launches Last Week
PIMCO Closes Three ETFs
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
ETFs posted net outflows of $7.7 bln last week; ETFs have exhibited net outflows seven of the last 13 weeks
Largest weekly net outflows since the week of 4/27/15
Last week's net outflows were led by US Large-Cap ETFs at $5.5 bln; conversely, International-Developed ETFs posted net inflows of $966 mln, the most of any category we measured
Eight of the 15 categories we measured posted net outflows last week
ETFs have generated net inflows 27 of 39 weeks YTD
ETF assets stand at $2.0 tln, flat YTD
13-week flows remain positive among most asset classes; combined $37.7 bln in net inflows
Fixed Income ETFs generated net inflows of $19.3 bln over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category we measured and meaningfully higher than the next largest category, US Large-Cap ETFs, which had $12.6 bln in net inflows
Fixed Income ETF market share is currently at 17%, up from 15% at this point last year
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
iShares MSCI EMU ETF (EZU) posted net inflows of $623 mln last week, leading all ETFs
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) got a renewed bid last week, generating net inflows of $369 mln, accounting for 6% of its current market cap-Interestingly, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) also had a solid week, posting net inflows of $221 mln; GLD's net inflows were its largest since the week of 6/22/15
Eight of the 10 ETFs to exhibit the largest net outflows last week were US equity-based
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) posted net outflows of $4.8 bln last week, the most of any ETF; SPY gave back a portion of the prior week's $14.6 bln net inflows
Over the last 13 weeks, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) had net outflows of $3.3 bln, the most of any ETF
US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading surged in August to 30% relative to July's 25% reading; over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume averaged 27%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume was down $17 bln last week compared to the prior week and is 5% below its 13-week average; recent market volatility has driven ETF volume higher
US Large-Cap ETFs accounted for 44% of ETF $ volume last week compared to their 13-week average of 46% and their 25% market cap share
US-Listed ETFs: Short Interest Data Updated: Based on data as of 9/15/15
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had the largest increase in USD short interest at $12.6 bln
SPY's shares short at 437 mln are at their highest level since 9/15/11 and are up 46% since 6/30/15
The Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) also had a big increase in short interest last period, up $914 mln; XLI's shares short are at their highest level of all time
635 ETFs exhibited short interest increases while 717 experienced short interest declines over the last period
Aggregate ETF USD short interest increased by $14.9 bln over the period ended 9/15/15
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 3.8%, flat from last period
For the seventh consecutive period the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) occupied the top spot as the most heavily shorted ETF as a % of shares outstanding at 570%
Seven of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are sector/industry based (SMH, XRT, XBI, IYR, DRV, XOP, OIH)
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only five ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than or equal to 100%)
US-Listed ETFs: Most Successful Recent Launches by Assets
$8.6 bln in total market cap of ETFs less than 1-year old
Over the last 13 weeks, recently launched Active ETFs generated net inflows of $560 mln, more than any other category; Active ETFs account for 27% of recently launched market share
Notably, 63 International-Developed ETFs were launched over the last year as ETF sponsors have issued products in an area that has exhibited strong net inflows recently
199 new ETF listings and 67 closures YTD
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Source: Morgan Stanley
