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CBO-Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Fiscal Policy
August 29, 2019--Summary
CBO regularly publishes baseline budget projections that show how federal spending, revenues, and deficits would look if current laws governing spending and taxes generally remained unchanged. Those projections are not intended to be a forecast of budgetary outcomes; rather, they are meant to provide a benchmark that policymakers can use to assess the potential effects of policy decisions.
To provide additional information about possible budgetary outcomes, CBO has estimated how its most recent budget projections would change under alternative assumptions about future fiscal policies, as follows:
Discretionary Spending. In CBO's baseline projections, discretionary outlays average 6.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2019 through 2021, before falling to 5.6 percent of GDP by 2029, which would be the lowest percentage recorded since the inception of the modern Congressional budget process. As one alternative policy, CBO projected what discretionary spending would be if it remained at about 6.3 percent of GDP through 2029. As a second alternative path for discretionary spending, CBO also estimated the budgetary effects of freezing all discretionary appropriations at the 2019 amounts through 2029.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CFTC.gov Swaps Report Update
August 28, 2019--CFTC's Weekly Swaps Report has been updated, and is now available.
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Source: CFTC.gov
Ordinary savers should be allowed to invest in private equity
August 27, 2019--SEC should ease restrictions and permit retail clients to use funds of funds.
Despite all the attention that is paid to the ups and downs of the big stock indices, private markets are where much of the action is.
Last year. companies in the US received twice as much investment-$2.9tn-from private sources than they raised in the public equity and debt markets,, and academic studies have found that the average private equity and venture capital fund has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in recent decades
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Source: FT.com
Innovator Announces Upside Cap Ranges for September Series of S&P 500 Buffer ETFs(TM)
August 27, 2019--The only ETFs that provide S&P 500 exposure up to a cap, with downside buffer levels of 9%, 15%, or 30% over a one-year Outcome Period
Innovator's Defined Outcome ETFsTM are the subject of a patent application filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Innovator Capital Management, LLC (Innovator) announced today the anticipated upside cap ranges and return profiles for the September Series of Innovator S&P 500 Buffer ETFsTM, scheduled for Cboe listing on September 3, 2019.
"We look forward to expanding the Innovator Defined Outcome ETFTM suite with a September series of S&P 500 Buffer ETFs," said Bruce Bond, CEO of Innovator ETFs. "We believe Defined Outcome ETFs solve a key challenge that millions of Americans face saving for retirement by providing the ability to stay invested in the market knowing they have both upside growth potential and built-in downside buffers against loss. With the September series, Innovator will soon have S&P 500 Buffer ETFs available beginning seven months of the year, as we build out the full suite, creating greater opportunity and flexibility for investors."
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Source: Innovator Defined Outcome ETFsTM
U.S. yield inversion deepens, stokes recession fears
August 27, 2019--The U.S. yield curve inversion deepened on Tuesday to levels not seen since 2007, rekindling fears of a looming recession that spurred a sell-off on Wall Street and stoked even more safe-haven demand for government bonds.
The intense interest in Treasuries supported demand for $40 billion worth of two-year government debt for sale, part of this week's $113 billion fixed-rate Treasury supply.
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Source: Reuters
Fee Rate Advisory #1 for Fiscal Year 2020
August 23, 2019---The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that in fiscal year 2020 the fees that public companies and other issuers pay to register their securities with the Commission will be set at $129.80 per million dollars.
Background
The securities laws require the Commission to make annual adjustments to the rates for fees paid under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act of 1933 and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
The Commission must set rates for the fees paid under Section 6(b) to levels that the Commission projects will generate collections equal to annual statutory target amounts. The Commission's projections are calculated using a methodology developed in consultation with the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget. The statutory target amount for fiscal year 2020 is $705 million. The annual adjustment to the fee rate under Section 6(b) also sets the annual adjustment to the fee rates under Sections 13(e) and 14(g).
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Source: SEC.gov
CBO's Updated Economic Forecast for the 2019-2029 Period
August 23, 2019--On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office released An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029. The report contains CBO's latest economic forecast, which reflects recent economic developments and incorporates changes in federal fiscal and trade policies.
If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand by 2.3 percent this year and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent over the next decade, CBO projects. In CBO's projections, economic growth gradually slows from 2019 to 2023. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth is largely determined by underlying trends in the growth of the labor force and productivity.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
Fears grow that softer Volcker rule will stoke Wall Street risk
August 22, 2019--While Wall Street has long lobbied against the legislation, which it sees as imposing an unnecessary compliance burden, supporters of the original rule fear the overhaul is a step in the wrong direction.
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Source: FT.com
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30-31, 2019
August 21, 2019--The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on July 30-31- 2019.
August 20, 2019--Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.
Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
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Source: federalreserve.gov
US farmers have high hopes for hemp crops
August 21, 2019--Demand for cannabidiol could see the market expand to $20bn in 5 years
Trade wars have crushed US grain sales. Tobacco is in terminal decline. However,, for farmers in Kentucky the future may lie in a crop of the...
However, for farmers in Kentucky the future may lie in a crop of the past: hemp. The fibrous plant once prized for rope and sailcloth is poised for a second life as a source of cannabidiol, or CBD, a substance added to everything from hamburgers to dog treats, which enthusiasts claim has therapeutic qualities.
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Source: FT.com
