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CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
October 31, 2019--Each year, CBO prepares economic forecasts that underlie its projections of the federal budget. CBO forecasts hundreds of economic variables, but some-including output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, interest rates, and wages and salaries-play a particularly significant role in the agency's budget projections.
To evaluate the quality of its economic projections, estimate uncertainty ranges, and isolate the effect of economic errors on budgetary projections, CBO regularly analyzes its historical forecast errors. That analysis serves as a tool for assessing the usefulness of the agency’s projections.
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SOurce: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
US Treasury considers selling 50-year bonds
October 31, 2019--The US government is considering selling 50-year bonds, joining other countries around the world that have seized on investors' hunger for...
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Source: FT.com
Intercontinental Exchange Launches ICE ETF Hub Enabling and Supporting the Next Phase of Growth in ETFs
October 28, 2019--Technology-enabled ecosystem aims to bring efficiency and standardization to the ETF primary market
New protocols for creating and redeeming ETF orders
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading operator of global exchanges and clearing houses and provider of data and listings services, today announced the launch of ICE ETF Hub, a new platform that is designed to enable the next phase of growth in the ETF market. ICE ETF Hub is an open architecture platform designed to bring efficiencies and standardization to the ETF primary trading market, where shares of ETFs are created and redeemed.
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Source: Intercontinental Exchange
IMF-Regional Economic Outlook: Stunted by Uncertainty October 2019
October 22, 2019--Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has slowed from 1.0 percent in 2018 to 0.2 percent in 2019, but a tentative pick-up to 1.8 percent is expected in 2020. External factors remain a headwind to economic prospects in the region, led by sluggish global growth, subdued commodity prices, and volatile capital flows, although easier global financial conditions provide some respite.
Policy uncertainty in some large LAC countries continues to be a drag on growth, while Venezuela’s economic and humanitarian crisis continues to drive large migration flows to other countries in the region. Against this backdrop, the LAC economies will need to rely on domestic sources of growth to accelerate the recovery, which hinges on a pickup in private consumption and investment anchored on a rebound in business and consumer confidence. Risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside, including further falls in global growth and commodity prices, spikes in risk premiums, heightened domestic policy uncertainty, contagion from the financial turmoil in Argentina, and natural disasters.
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Source: IMF
Howard launches 2 ETFs that shift between fixed income, equities
October 14, 2019--Howard Capital Management has brought to NYSE Arca two exchange-traded funds that move funds between fixed-income securities and equities based on the performance of an equity index.
The HCM Defender 500 Index ETF is linked to the S&P 500, while the HCM Defender 100 Index ETF is guided by the Nasdaq-100.
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Source: SmartBrief
Banks launch platform to upgrade bond issuance
October 11, 2019--Nine top Wall Street banks have announced a new initiative designed to ease the cumbersome process of selling corporate bonds, as the increasing electronification of markets starts to seep into debt issuance.
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Source: FT.com
Fed Unveils Plan to Expand Balance Sheet but Insists It's Not Q.E.
October 11, 2019--The Federal Reserve said Friday that it would begin buying government-backed securities to expand its balance sheet, a move meant to keep an obscure but critical corner of financial markets functioning smoothly.
Now officials seem to be hoping the public will understand their motivation.
Unlike its postrecession bond-buying campaigns, often called quantitative easing, or Q.E., the new effort is not monetary stimulus, the Fed stressed. Instead, the central bank is trying to keep money markets in check after a messy episode in which interest rates for repurchase agreements-essentially short-term loans between banks and other financial institutions-spiked in September.
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Source: NY Times
IEA-Oil Market Report: Back to business as usual
October 11, 2019--Oil markets in September withstood a textbook case of a large-scale supply disruption as the attacks on Saudi Arabia temporarily affected about 5.7 mb/d of crude production capacity. On Monday 16 September, the first trading day following the attacks, after an initial spike to $71/bbl Brent prices fell back as it became clear that the damage, although serious, would not cause long-lasting disruption to markets.
Saudi Aramco's achievement in restoring operations and maintaining customer confidence was very impressive. This is reflected in the fact that as we publish this Report, the price of Brent is close to $58/bbl, actually $2/bbl below the pre-attack level.
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Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Fidelity joins the stampede to eliminate fees for online trading
October 10, 2019--Fidelity Investments said it is eliminating commissions for online trading of stocks, options and ETFs.
The announcement comes after its major competitors earlier this month announced similar moves.
In addition to the fee change, Fidelity is automatically directing customer cash to higher-yielding money markets.
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Source: cnbc.com
U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Fund Investors and APs Continue to Pad the Coffers of Bond Funds During the Week
October 10, 2019--For the sixth week in a row, investors were overall net purchasers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs), injecting $12.1 billion for Lipper's fund-flows week ended October 9, 2019. Fund investors were net purchasers of money market funds (+$14.7 billion), taxable fixed income funds (+$2.9 billion), and municipal bond funds (+$1.4 billion).
However, they were net redeemers of equity funds (-$6.9 billion).
Market Wrap-Up
For the fund-flows week ended October 9, 2019, market volatility was ever-present, but the broad-based U.S. indices managed to move into positive territory. During the week, investors were hand fed a Goldilocks nonfarm payrolls report that many pundits interpreted as showing continued labor market strength while also leaving some wiggle room for the Federal Reserve Board to apply another interest rate cut in the near term.
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Source: Refinitiv
