Global ETF News Older than One Year
A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles- IMF Working paper
July 14, 2011-Summary: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles.
In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
view the IMF Working paper-A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles
Source: IMF
Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?
July 14, 2011--Executive Summary
Global carbon budget
Research by the Potsdam Institute calculates that to reduce the chance of exceeding 2°C warming to 20%, the
global carbon budget for 2000-2050 is 886 GtCO2. Minus emissions from the first decade of this century, this
leaves a budget of 565 GtCO2 for the remaining 40 years to 2050.
Global warming potential of proven reserves
The total carbon potential of the Earth’s known fossil fuel reserves comes to 2795 GtCO2. 65% of this is from coal, with oil providing 22% and gas 13%. This means that governments and global markets are currently treating as assets, reserves equivalent to nearly 5 times the carbon budget for the next 40 years. The investment consequences of using only 20% of these reserves have not yet been assessed.
Global warming potential of listed reserves
The fossil fuel reserves held by the top 100 listed coal companies and the top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent potential emissions of 745 GtCO2. This exceeds the remaining carbon budget of 565 GtCO2 by 180 GtCO2.This means that using just the listed proportion of reserves in the next 40 years is enough to take us beyond 2°C of global warming.
view the report-Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?
Source: Carbon Tracker Initiative
Fossil-fuel reserves should not be posted on stock exchanges as zero risk If we are to stay below 2C global warming, we cannot afford to burn more than 20% of listed coal, oil and gas reserves
July 14, 2011--Oil, gas and coal companies have been rushing to list shares on stock exchanges in recent years, using investment prospectuses that never mention climate change meaningfully.
These companies, like those already listed, are permitted by regulators to post their reserves as assets assuming zero risk that governments will do what they say they are going to do about carbon emissions, which is to cut them, potentially to the bone.
Yet many governments have emission-reductions targets, and some even have policies. For example, last week the Australian government announced a carbon tax aiming to cut fossil-fuel use and boost renewables. This week the British government unveiled electricity market reform plans targeting fossil fuels, mindful of legally binding targets for carbon emissions reductions of 80% by 2050.
Source: Guardian UK
Preliminary acceptance rate of the exchange offer made by Alpha Beta Netherlands Holding N.V. to the shareholders of Deutsche Börse AG exceeds the minimum acceptance threshold
July 14, 2011-- Based on the declarations of acceptance booked and/or submitted so far by custodian banks for the offer from Alpha Beta Netherlands Holding N.V. to shareholders of Deutsche Börse AG in connection with the planned combination of Deutsche Börse with NYSE Euronext the minimum acceptance threshold of 75 percent has been exceeded (completion conditions pursuant to section 14.1 (a) of the offer document published on 4 May 2011). The preliminary acceptance rate currently stands at above 80 percent.
The preliminary acceptance rate can either rise further or fall depending on instructions that were submitted on time but have not yet been recorded (which may also include exercised withdrawal rights).
The final number of Deutsche Börse shares tendered under the offer during the acceptance period will be published pursuant to section 23 para. 1 sentence 1 no. 2 of the German Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act (WpÜG) as soon as confirmation of the final outcome has been obtained.
Source: Deutsche Börse
Derivatives Rules to Help Swaps Market Grow $40.7 Trillion, Citigroup Says
July 13, 2011--The market for interest-rate and credit-default swaps will grow more than 10 percent to $435 trillion by 2013 as oversight of over-the-counter derivatives improves price transparency and cuts trading risk, according to Citigroup Inc. (C)
Banks, hedge funds and other investors are bracing for sweeping changes to the private derivatives market, including increased capital requirements and most trades being processed by clearinghouses, which require margin payments. The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in the U.S. last year, and rules being created now by the European Parliament will regulate swaps for the first time in their 30-year history.
Source: Bloomberg
NYSE Euronext/Deutsche Boerse: Exchange Offer Accepted By 60.16% Of Deutsche Boerse Shares
July 13, 2011--German exchange operator Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1.XE) Wednesday said 60.16% of its shares had been tendered by Wednesday afternoon as part of the proposed merger with rival exchange operator NYSE Euronext (NYX), according to the German Electronic Federal Gazette.
This figure is a significant increase from 34.55% late Tuesday.
Investors in Deutsche Boerse have until 2200 GMT Wednesday to tender shares in favor of the plan, but a formal announcement may come two days later, after votes sent by slower, traditional mail by some of the investors' custodian banks have been tabulated.
Source: NASDAQ News
July Oil Market Report assesses impact of IEA stock release
Market appetite for the oil made available so far has been greater than during the collective action in 2005 following Hurricane Katrina
July 13, 2011--This month provides a first detailed look at Oil Market Report projections for 2012, while also incorporating consolidated annual 2009/2010 oil data for non-OECD and OECD countries, respectively.
With higher underlying non-OECD demand (but persistent weakness in the OECD), and a string of 2011 supply-side outages, over and above the one in Libya, the market ledger this month looks slightly tighter than a month ago.
Our balances for first-half 2011 show demand continuing to run ahead of supply, if a little less rapidly than in 2H10. Of course, upward price momentum has also come from the absence of 1.5 mb/d of light/sweet Libyan crude. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is now 31.3 mb/d for 3Q11 (a significant, if as-yet unquantifiable, portion of this will come from the IEA’s Libya collective action). The ‘call’ then fluctuates between 29.8-31.4 mb/d through end-2012. Major producers have recognised that demand for their oil is rising, with the seasonal uptick in 3Q11 refinery runs, and more generally as economic growth and short-term fuel substitution keep global and emerging market demand growth robust. We welcome rising OPEC volumes seen in June (30.03 mb/d output), but the market needs still more oil for 3Q.
view highlights of Highlights of the latest OMR
Source: IEA
Eurozone fears push gold to new high
July 13, 2011--Gold prices hit a record $1 578.50 an ounce on Wednesday as concern over the eurozone debt crisis deepened, and after minutes to the Federal Reserve’s June meeting suggested some members were pondering the possible need for additional easing
The precious metal rose in a number of currencies, with gold priced in sterling and rand already hitting record highs on Wednesday and euro-denominated gold holding close to Tuesday’s record level.
Source: FIN24
S&P Equity Research, Showing Not All S&P 500 ETFs Alike, Favors SPY
Overweight-rated SPY rose 32.9% in 12 months versus Marketweight-rated RSP’s rise of 38.1%
July 12, 2011--An analysis of S&P 500 exchange traded funds (ETFs) by Standard & Poor’s Equity Research shows that not all such funds are alike and that investors must look under the hood at each fund’s stock weightings before choosing an ETF for their portfolios
In a comparison of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) versus the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP), S&P Equity Analyst Todd Rosenbluth found that SPY had a relatively strong 12-month period as of June, rising 32.9%, but the ETF lagged RSP, which climbed 38.1%.
However, because RSP is constructed differently from SPY, giving equal weighting to all stock holdings in the S&P 500 versus SPY’s more heavily weighted holdings in the biggest companies, S&P Equity Research favors SPY with an Overweight rating compared to RSP’s lower Marketweight rating.
Source: AdvisorOne
Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?-IMF Working paper
July 12, 2011--Summary: This paper examines foreign exchange intervention practices and their effectiveness using a new qualitative and quantitative database for a panel of 15 economies covering 2004 - 10, with special focus on Latin America. Qualitatively, it examines institutional aspects such as declared motives, instruments employed, the use of rules versus discretion, and the degree of transparency.
Quantitatively, it assesses the effectiveness of sterilized interventions in influencing the exchange rate using a two-stage IV-panel data approach to overcome endogeneity bias. Results suggest that interventions slow the pace of appreciation, but the effects decrease rapidly with the degree of capital account openness. At the same time, interventions are more effective in the context of already ‘overvalued’ exchange rates.
view the IMF Working paper-Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?
Source: IMF
