Market Reacted Negatively to Broader Global Concerns
EM's overall economic conditions were further exacerbated by continuing concern.
July 18, 2013--China
Macro numbers came in weaker than expected.
The weak domestic picture was further exacerbated by continuing concern over QE tapering in the U.S., which had a negative impact on global markets.
The Chinese market corrected sharply in June, as macro numbers came in weaker than expected and increasing interbank interest rates raised concerns about liquidity issues in the financial system.
On the economic front, manufacturing remained in contraction territory for a second consecutive month. Export growth also declined to its lowest level in ten months. And fixed asset investment decelerated for a third consecutive month.
India
Domestic economy maintains weak.
Though the Indian market fell 2% in June, the country outperformed much of the region for the second consecutive month.
Stocks were primarily held back by the significant decline in the value of the rupee against the U.S. dollar (8% depreciation over the past 12 months), which was further fueled by the Fed’s QE tapering announcement.
On a positive note, inflation continues to ease. In May, the Wholesale Price Index grew 4.7% year-over-year. However, despite falling inflation, the country's high trade deficit and depreciating currency left the central bank little room to further decrease interest rates.
ASEAN
Malaysia continued outperforming the rest of ASEAN countries.
The ASEAN equities underperformed in June as the weak foreign exchange market led to further deteriorating investor sentiment. Among the underperformers were the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, all of which saw their currencies depreciate, while Malaysia again outperformed. In June, the Indonesia government increased the price of fuel by 44%, the first such increase since 2008, to help address the country’s financial difficulties. Inflation rose to 5.90% YoY and led the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6% at its June meeting.
Latin America-Events in Brazil cast shadow on the entire Latin America region.
Brazilian equities declined sharply in June. The market reacted negatively to domestic social unrest, further cuts to output and earnings forecasts, as well as broader global concerns. Brazilian economic activity was badly affected by a series of organized protests, with thousands of voters demonstrating against transportation fare hikes, misuse of taxpayer money and widespread corruption endemic within the political class.
EMEA-Middle East Africa and Eastern Europe outperformed EM overall.
Russian equities fell in June, in line with the EMEA and emerging countries overall. Like much of the global market, Russia sold off due to Fed’s QE concern, as well as the sudden spike in China’s interbank rates. Meanwhile, ruble depreciation further detracted from performance in U.S dollar terms.
The Middle East Africa region outperformed the entire EMEA region. After lagging for much of the year, South Africa outperformed, while Egypt underperformed due to rising political unrest in the country.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
EU wants financial services included in US trade deal
July 18, 2013--The European Union wants to include financial services in negotiations on the world's largest free-trade accord with the United States despite US opposition, a top EU official said Thursday.
EU Financial Markets Commissioner Michel Barnier said that on a visit earlier this week to Washington, he had called for the inclusion of "all financial services, not only access to financial markets but also regulatory aspects" in the talks.
Barnier met US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew who was quoted by Le Figaro daily on Tuesday as saying that the issue should be left out of the negotiations which officially began earlier this month.
Source: EUbusiness
Regulators give markets leeway on financial benchmarks
July 17, 2013--Global regulators will give markets some leeway in compiling financial benchmarks, stopping short of U.S. calls for more radical action to stamp out price-rigging.
The guidance from the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) on Wednesday, which will cover all benchmarks from interest rates to oil and gold, is the first attempt to forge a global approach and avoid conflicting national rules.
Source: Reuters
IMF Working paper-Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit-A User Guide
July 17, 2013--Summary: There has recently been a proliferation of new quantitative tools as part of various initiatives to improve the monitoring of systemic risk. The "SysMo" project takes stock of the current toolkit used at the IMF for this purpose.
It offers detailed and practical guidance on the use of current systemic risk monitoring tools on the basis of six key questions policymakers are likely to ask. It provides "how-to" guidance to select and interpret monitoring tools; a continuously updated inventory of key categories of tools ("Tools Binder"); and suggestions on how to operationalize systemic risk monitoring, including through a systemic risk "Dashboard." In doing so, the project cuts across various country-specific circumstances and makes a preliminary assessment of the adequacy and limitations of the current toolkit.
view the IMF Working paper-Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit-A User Guide
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook
July 17, 2013--Summary: The paper proposes a simple, new, analytical framework for assessing the cost and benefits of macroprudential policies. It proposes a measure of net benefits in terms of parameters that can be estimated: the probability of crisis, the loss in output given crisis, policy effectiveness in bringing down both the probability and damage during crisis, and the output-cost of a policy decision.
It discusses three types of policy leakages and identifies instruments that could best minimize the leakages. Some rules of thumb for policymakers are provided.
view the IMF Working paper-Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook
Source: IMF
FSB Releases Consultative Document on Principles for an Effective Risk Appetite Framework
July 17, 2013--The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is today launching a public consultation on its draft Principles for an Effective Risk Appetite Framework.
The Principles will enhance supervisory oversight of firms, in particular of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), by establishing minimum expectations for the key elements contained in an effective risk appetite framework, such as: an actionable risk appetite statement; quantitative risk limits; and clearly defined roles and responsibilities of the board of directors, senior management and business lines. The Principles also aim to establish a common nomenclature for terms used in the risk appetite framework, which will help to facilitate a common understanding between supervisors and firms and to narrow any gaps between supervisory expectations and firms’ practices.
view the Principles for An Effective Risk Appetite Framework-Consultative Document
Source: Financial Stability Board (FSB)
AltaVista Research-2Q13 Reporting Monitor: Half of Sectors to Post Profit Decline
July 17, 2013--HIGHLIGHTS:
At the outset of reporting season, S&P earnings are poised to gain 3.7% YoY, with the biggest contributions coming from the Financials (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors. Five sectors are forecast to post annual declines in earnings...
Sales may only post a gain of about 1% due to a $31 billion drag from lower Energy (XLE) revenues. Excluding Energy, revenue growth would be about 2.5%. Margins look to be mixed with Financials showing the only real improvement vs. Q2 2012, while Utilities (XLU), Tech (XLK) and Materials (XLB) could have significant declines...
Although still early, Tech firms have fallen short of expectations so far, while Financials continue to surprise on the upside...
Source: AltaVista Research
IOSCO publishes Principles for Financial Benchmarks
July 17, 2013--IOSCO publishes Principles for Financial Benchmarks
The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) published today the final report on Principles for Financial Benchmarks, which provides an overarching framework of principles for benchmarks used in financial markets.
The principles form an integral part of IOSCO´s work in leading efforts to enhance the integrity, the reliability and the oversight of benchmarks by establishing guidelines for benchmark administrators and other relevant bodies in the following areas:
Governance: to protect the integrity of the Benchmark determination process and to address conflicts of interest;
Benchmark quality: to promote the quality and integrity of Benchmark determinations through the application of design factors;
view the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks-Final Report
Source: IOSCO
IOSCO publishes paper on cyber-crime, systemic risk and global securities markets
July 16,2013--The Research Department of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a joint Staff Working Paper, with the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE),entitled Cyber-crime, securities markets and systemic risk.
The report explores the evolving nature of cyber-crime in securities markets and the threat it poses to the fair and efficient functioning of markets. Importantly, it highlights the urgent need to consider cyber threats to securities markets as a potential systemic risk.
view the Cyber-crime, securities markets and systemic risk report
Source: IOSCO
Twenty-One Thousand New Indexes Provide Investors a Broad Representation of the Global Investable Marketplace
July 15, 2013--The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. today announced the introduction of the second suite of the NASDAQ Global Index Family-resulting in the launch of more than 21,000 new NASDAQ Global indexes.
The NASDAQ Global Index Family represents more than 98% of the global equity investable marketplace and is now comprised of over 25,000 indexes. The family consists of global securities broken down by market segment, region, country, size and sector. The NASDAQ Global Index Family covers 9,000 securities with a combined float-adjusted market capitalization of over $37 trillion.
Source: NASDAQ OMX