Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF Working paper-Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere
August 22, 2013--Summary: Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time.
This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows, Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.
view the IMF Working paper-Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere
Source: IMF
Basel III, Volcker Rule Could Crimp ETF Business, Too: Analyst
August 21, 2013--How much inventory in stocks and bonds- i.e, how much risk-should brokers and market makers be allowed to carry on their books?
This question, part of the last few years' regulatory debates, turns out to matter for the fast-growing exchange-traded fund industry. That’s the notion this morning over at Credit Suisse (CS), where a review of BlackRock's (BLK) ETF business by analysts Craig Siegenthaler, Mark Deluzio and Giuliano Mina includes some caution over how liquid ETFs can be if market making firms face new restrictions.
Source: Barron's
Issuance plummets as EM pain intensifies
August 20, 2013--Developing world debt and equity issuance has contracted sharply this summer as investor concerns over the end of US quantitative easing have severely rattled emerging markets.
Companies and governments in emerging markets have issued $42.4bn of debt since the beginning of June, compared with $95.1bn during the whole of June, July and August last year, according to Dealogic data.
Source: FT.com
Does last week's rise in top gold ETF holding signify turn around?
August 20, 2013--Last week the SPDR Gold ETF recorded a 9 tonne increase in its gold holdings- the first increase in over 9 months, is this a sign that gold has bottomed?
While not too much should yet be read into a small rise in the SPDR gold ETF’s holdings last week, the very fact that this represents the first weekly rise for around 9 months is giving the gold bulls some heart after a dire couple of months. Whether it yet indicates a reversal of the recent trend which has seen the ETF’s gold holdings fall from over 1300 tonnes of gold down to a little over 900 tonnes will require several more weeks, or months of rises to confirm. Last week’s rise was from 909 tonnes to 915 tonnes, although the holding appears to have fallen again, but by only just under two tonnes, so far this week, coinciding with the gold price appearing to have run into a temporary wall.
Source: MineWeb
Mirae-EM Equity Markets Rebounded, Though Sentiment Remains Cautious
Valuations across global equity markets remain attractive relative to long-term historic averages.
August 20, 2013--China: China's economic indicators have been mixed
The Chinese market experienced a mild rebound in July, climbing 4%, but it has yet to reflect a meaningful pickup as sentiment remains depressed due to disappointing economic data and the lack of policy action.
On the economic front, HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 47.7, the third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading in 11months. Additionally, June’s industrial output growth of 8.9% YoY lagged expectations for a 9.1% increase, and trade data remains weak.
Meanwhile, second quarter GDP growth slowed to 7.5% YoY, again igniting concerns over a hard landing. While slowing growth disappointed the market, Premier Li Keqiang’s comments that 7% is the bottom line for tolerance of an economic slowdown provided some reassurance.
India: Concerns about the higher rates on India's growth prospects weigh on market sentiment.
The Indian market finished flat in July, but was volatile during the month on the back of macroeconomic issues, including slowing growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and persistent deficits.
The Indian economy remains under pressure. HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July, while the latest reading of industrial production showed a decline. At the same time, inflation has begun to accelerate again, while the rupee has continued to weaken. In mid-July, the central bank raised the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate and the Bank Rate both by 200 basis points to 10.25%. Additionally, the RBI capped the amount banks can borrow at the policy interest rate, all in an effort to tighten liquidity and defend the rupee. However, the central bank held the key lending rate steady.
ASEAN: Singapore and Philippines outperformed the rest of ASEAN countries.
In Singapore, inflation inched up to 1.8% YoY in June. On the economic front, HSBC manufacturing PMI climbed to the highest level since April 2011. Meanwhile, second quarter GDP came up from just 0.2% in the first quarter, on the back of strong manufacturing and construction activity.
After increasing to 2.8% in June, inflation in the Philippines declined to 2.5% YoY in July. Unlike some of its ASEAN neighbors, macroeconomic indicators and earnings results remain resilient in the Philippines; however, the demanding valuation level has pushed market volatility higher. In Malaysia, inflation held steady at 1.8% YoY in June, while other data reflected a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, Fitch revised its outlook for Malaysia’s sovereign debt from stable to negative, citing increased federal government debt, and a widening budget deficit, which increased to 4.7%.
Latin America: Sentiment is expected to remain weak given the numerous challenges to Brazil's economy.
The Brazilian market fell again in U.S. dollar terms during July, with the MSCI Brazil Index losing 1.5%; however, the Bovespa Index returned 1.6% in local currency terms.
A material slowdown in the domestic economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in earnings downgrades across the consumer, financials and industrials sectors. Meanwhile, stocks with greater links to the global economy have been hampered by falling commodity prices and decelerating Chinese growth.
On the domestic front, there is growing debate over the health of the Brazilian consumer. Consumer sectors have materially outperformed in recent years based on structural growth trends; however, household leverage and debt servicing requirements are at new highs.
EMEA: Russian market rebounded in line with oil and commodity prices.
The MSCI Russia Index gained 3.7% in July, outperforming emerging markets. The market was lifted by rising oil prices and the rebound of a natural gas producer, as well as optimism that the new central bank governor will pursue market-friendly policies.
On a sector basis, most sectors were positive, led by energy and telecom services. On the other hand, materials significantly underperformed as a major fertilizer company announced that it was leaving a pricing cartel and is willing to sell at significantly lower prices.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
Eurex to Enter Currency Market With Derivatives
August 20, 2013--Eurex will enter the foreign-exchange market for the first time as Europe's largest derivatives exchange seeks to expand into an asset class dominated by its American rival CME Group Inc.
From Oct. 7, Eurex will offer exchange-listed derivatives on the six currency pairs where the bulk of over-the-counter trading takes place. The futures and options will include contracts based on euro-dollar, euro-pound, euro-Swiss franc and pound-dollar, according to a notice sent to members today. The exchange will also make available contracts based on the pound-Swiss franc and dollar-Swiss franc pairs.
Source: Bloomberg
Which Coastal Cities Are at Highest Risk of Damaging Floods? New Study Crunches the Numbers
August 19, 2013--Climate change, rapid urbanization, and subsiding land are putting the world's coastal cities at increasing risk of dangerous and costly flooding, a new study calculating future urban losses from flooding shows.
The study, led by World Bank economist Stephane Hallegatte and the OECD, forecasts that average global flood losses will multiply from $6 billion per city in 2005 to $52 billion a year by 2050 with just social-economic factors, such as increasing population and property value, taken into account. Add in the risks from sea-level rise and sinking land, and global flood damage could cost $1 trillion a year if cities don’t take steps to adapt.
Source: World Bank
ETF Securities Precious Metals Weekly-Silver Surges 12% as US Stocks Stumble
August 19, 2013--Positive precious metal sentiment shifts up a gear. Silver led precious
metals higher last week, as global growth data continued to improve.
Precious metals also benefited on safe haven buying due to unrest in Egypt and as investors looked for laggard value assets as they rotated out of perceived overstretched equities. The more industrially-oriented precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) we believe will continue to benefit from improving global growth sentiment. With COMEX gold speculative short positions still at extremely elevated levels, physical demand surging, and the gold price trading below its estimated average marginal cost of production, gold reminded us last week of its good value tail risk insurance and diversification benefits. Gold better priced than equities for Fed tapering? It is interesting to note that the gold price is now back down to around where it was just before the second round of US quantitative easing (QE II) was announced in November of 2010.
Source: ETF Securities Research
Myners calls for action over ETP 'stability risk'
August 19, 2013--Former City minister Lord Paul Myners has urged the Financial Conduct Authority to do more to protect financial stability, which he believes could be at risk from the way exchange-traded products track illiquid assets.
In an interview with Financial News, Myners warned that increased trading in ETPs could amplify market volatility in situations such as when redemptions are triggered, leading to sales of the underlying asset. This, in turn, could destabilise markets, particularly where they lack liquidity.
Source: Financial News
Vanguard takes top spots in global sales
August 18, 2013--Vanguard is on track for a bumper year after the world's fourth-largest asset manager took the top three spots in the global fund sales leader board in the first half of 2013, according to Strategic Insight, an asset management research company.
Three of Vanguard’s largest index funds attracted larger inflows than the best selling actively managed fund, the Templeton Global Total Return fund, run by Michael Hasenstab.
Source: FT.com
