ETFS Precious Metals Weekly-Early Signs US Fiscal Impasse May Not Be Ignored Much Longer
October 7, 2013--Early signs markets starting to take default risk seriously. The gold price fell last week despite the US government shutdown, a weaker dollar, and
generally weaker than expected US economic data, indicating that short term investors continue to engage in "buy the rumor, sell the fact" gold trading activity.
Silver was the precious metals stalwart, gaining 0.2% as investor flows favoured this beaten-down hybrid metal over gold. The Golden Week holiday in China likely kept the world's largest consumer of gold away from the market, adding pressure on prices. The market calm is unlikely to last long in our view. Toward the end of last week there were tentative signs of increasing market impatience with the lack of progress, including continued selling of the US dollar and buying of perceived safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The cavalier attitude being taken by politicians about fiscal matters is leading to growing doubts about the ability of US politicians to come to a compromise that will avoid a sovereign default. With the debt limit likely to be breached around 17th October, markets are likely to remain volatile and short term news driven over the next few weeks. If progress on debt negotiations maintains the current stalemate much longer, gold is likely to move back into the spotlight.
Source: ETF Securities
World Economic Outlook (WEO)-Transitions and Tensions
October 7, 2013--Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth.
Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
view the World Economic Outlook (WEO)-Transitions and Tensions -October 2013
Source: World Bank
BlackRock Research- ETP Landscape- Equity flows swell on taper delay
October 7, 2013-The Federal Reserve's surprise September no-taper announcement removed some risk of near-term volatility and took some pressure off rate-sensitive assets. As a result, stocks rallied for much of the month and investors moved heavily back into Developed Markets Equity ETPs.
Investors also began to warm up to Emerging Markets Equities.
Global ETP flows reached $35.0bn during the month- following record outflows in August-as investors again turned to the industry to execute their market views
Equity funds captured the majority of September flows with $28.7bn and year-to-date flows are now 46% higher than at the same point in 2012
The Fed's surprise decision not to taper also removed pressure from Emerging Markets Equity ETPs, leading to inflows of $5.3bn for the month-the first material inflow since January
Fixed Income ETP inflows totalled $6.6bn in September and year-to--ate flows have nearly returned to their May peak, although they remain at the lowest year-to-date level since the credit crisis began in 2008
Source: Source: BlackRock ETP Landscape Research
World Bank-World Development Report 2014: Risk Management Needs to Be Proactive, Systematic & Integrated to Have Development Impact
October 6, 2013--October 6, 2013 - In the face of social unrest, economic crises, and more frequent natural disasters, preparation and recovery efforts by governments, communities, and individuals have become increasingly essential. Effective risk management can provide both resilience to withstand adverse events and the ability to take advantage of development opportunities. It is, therefore, a critical ingredient in the fight to end poverty, says a new report from the World Bank Group.
According to the World Development Report 2014, titled-Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development, adverse shocks-above all health, weather shocks, and economic crises-play a major role in pushing households below the poverty line and keeping them there. The report concludes that managing risks responsibly and effectively can save lives, avert economic damages, prevent development setbacks, and unleash opportunities. Risk management can be a powerful instrument for development, bringing security and the means of progress to people in developing countries and beyond.
view the World Development Report 2014: 'Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development'
Source: World Bank
S&P GSCI Commodities Market Attributes September 2013
October 4, 2013--KEY HIGHLIGHTS
The GSCI was down 3.4% for the month, with three out of five sectors posting negative returns.
Despite losing 4.5% on the month, S&P GSCI Energy is up 3.8% for the year
Grains were down 2.9% in September mainly due to corn’s 8.4% loss.
The S&P GSCI Precious Metals was the weakest sector in September, returning -5.3%.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
The S&P GSCI was negative for the month, down 3.4%, with YTD returns down to -0.9%. Various factors affected commodity performance during the month, including the potential tapering of federal stimulus and global growth and economic recovery, as well as concerns regarding unrest in the Middle East and North African region.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
EPFR News Release-Europe emerges as unlikely haven as US economic policy unsettles markets
October 4, 2013--After a quarter spent debating when-and how hard-the US Federal Reserve would tap the brakes on its current quantitative easing program, investors headed into 4Q13 wondering if US lawmakers are going to drive over the fiscal cliff with the throttle wide open.
Flows into fund groups dedicated to riskier assets, which began to pick up in late September after the Fed decided not to 'taper' QE3 in October, faltered again as parts of the US government began to shut down and the space under the current debt ceiling dwindled.
Based on flows into EPFR Global-tracked funds during the third quarter, a consensus of sorts is emerging from the latest bout of uncertainty. Investors now expect that, by way of deliberate action on the part of the Fed or as a consequence of political gridlock, US borrowing costs will keep rising. This will slow but not stop the current recovery in the US economy but will make life more difficult for emerging markets, especially those with above average inflation rates or current account deficits. It will also enhance the relative appeal of Japan and Europe, both of which are enjoying a period of relative stability, in both political and policy terms, as well as a pick-up in economic growth.
Between July and September combined monthly and daily data shows Europe Equity Funds posting their biggest quarterly inflow since EPFR Global started tracking them and Japan Equity Funds remaining on course to smash their full-year inflow record set in 2005.
Visit www.epfr.com for more info
Source: EPFR
According to ETFGI: Global ETF and ETP assets reached US$2.22 trillion, a new record high, at the end of Q3 2013
October 4, 2013--Strong net inflows of US$35 billion in September and positive market performance helped to push global ETF and ETP assets to US$2.22 trillion, a new record high, at the end of Q3 2013, according to ETFGI's Q3 2013 Global ETF and ETP industry insights report.
The Global ETF/ETP industry now has 4,982 ETFs/ETPs, with 10,019 listing, from 212 providers listed on 57 exchanges.
"The Federal Reserve's decision in their last meeting to maintain the QE scheme at its current size and positive market performance encouraged investors to put net inflows of US$35 billion back into the market through ETFs/ETPs" according to Deborah Fuhr, Managing Partner at ETFGI.
Year to date (YTD) net inflows into ETFs/ETPs are at US$168.9 billion, which is below the US$188.4 billion at this time in 2012. Equity ETFs/ETPs gathered the largest net inflows with US$29.3 billion, followed by fixed income with US$5.8 billion, and commodity with US$1.2 billion.
Source: ETFGI
ETF assets rise on positive market performance
October 4, 2013--ETF assets rise on positive market performance Strong net inflows of $35bn in September and positive market performance helped to push global ETF and ETP assets to $2.22trn, a new record high, at the end of Q3 2013,according to an ETFGI report.
"The Federal Reserve’s decision in their last meeting to maintain the QE scheme at its current size and positive market performance encouraged investors to put net inflows of $35bn back into the market through ETFs/ETPs" says to Deborah Fuhr, managing partner at ETFGI.Year to date net inflows into ETFs/ETPs are at $168.9bn, which is below the $188.4bn at this time in 2012. Equity ETFs/ETPs gathered the largest net inflows with $29.3bn, followed by fixed income with $5.8bn, and commodity with $1.2bn.
Source: FTSE Global Markets
SPDR Market Commentary-Weekly Market Report
October 4, 2013--ECONOMIES: The government shutdown delays the release of key jobs data in the US. GDP rises solidly in Canada. Mortgage approvals rise in the UK. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Australia leave policy unchanged and very easy.
MARKETS: The US government shutdown erodes investor confidence. Equities are mostly lower. Although Italian equities and bonds rally as Premier Letta survives no-confidence vote. JPY and AUD are bid. For oil, the Brent/WTI spread narrows.
NEXT WEEK PREVIEWED
SPOTLIGHT: The Bank of England should leave policy unchanged. Retail sales likely post a meager gain in the US, although the shutdown may delay the report's release. Employment should rise moderately in Canada and Australia.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
US
The EMPLOYMENT SITUATION report for September was not released on schedule because of the Federal government
shutdown, which has led to the furlough of roughly 800,000
"non-essential" government workers including those at the
Bureau of Labor Statistics responsible for the closely-followed
and indeed highly-anticipated employment data. ADP Employer
Services did release its independent estimate of private sector
payrolls for the month. We normally don't highlight this print
because it doesn't have a great track record of predicting the official jobs numbers. However, it's all we have for now.
ADP reported a moderate 166,000 gain in private payrolls for September, up from a downwardly revised 159,000 August gain.
visit https://www.spdrs.com/ for more info
Source: SSgA
Fixed income ETP flows rebound in September
October 3, 2013--Fixed income exchange-traded products attracted $5.8 billion in net inflows in September, benefiting from the US Federal Reserve's decision not to begin
tapering and reversing strong outflows in the previous month..
Source: Financial News