IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update-Is the Tide Rising?
January 20, 2014--Global activity strengthened during the second half of 2013, as anticipated in the October 2013 World Economic Outlook (WEO). Activity is expected to improve further in 2014-15, largely on account of recovery in the advanced economies. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in 2014, at around 3.7 percent, rising to 3.9 percent in 2015, a broadly unchanged outlook from the October 2013 WEO. But downward revisions to growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain.
In advanced economies, output gaps generally remain large and, given the risks, the monetary policy stance should stay accommodative while fiscal consolidation continues. In many emerging market and developing economies, stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a concern. Some economies may have room for monetary policy support. In many others, output is close to potential, suggesting that growth declines partly reflect structural factors or a cyclical cooling and that the main policy approach for raising growth must be to push ahead with structural reform. In some economies, there is a need to manage vulnerabilities associated with weakening credit quality and larger capital outflows.
view the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update- Is the Tide Rising?
view the infographic-World Economic Outlook Update
Source: IMF
Increased Cyber Security Can Save Global Economy Trillions
New World Economic Forum report examines the need for new approaches to increase resilience against cyberattacks
Report offers a framework for collaboration to help leaders build effective cyber risk management platforms
Delays in adopting cyber security capabilities could result in a US$ 3 trillion loss in economic value
January 20, 2014--Failing to improve cyber security could cost the world economy and lead to more frequent cyberattacks, according to a new report released today by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company.
The Risk and Responsibility in a Hyperconnected World report addresses options that institutions can take to improve cyber resilience and mitigate the economic and strategic impact of such attacks. With the recent proliferation of cyberattacks, corporate executives need to devote increasing attention to protecting information assets and on-line operations.
view the Risk and Responsibility in a Hyperconnected World report
Source: World Economic Forum (WEF)
US group to run Libor after rate-rigging shame
A subsidiary of Intercontinental-Exchange Group, the owner of the Liffe futures exchange, is to take over the administration of Libor from the British Bankers, Association
January 17, 2014--Responsibility for Libor has been handed to a US exchange group in the wake of revelations the global benchmark lending rate was rigged.
A subsidiary of IntercontinentalExchange Group, the owner of the Liffe futures exchange, is to take over the administration from the British Bankers' Association (BBA) of Libor - the London inter-bank offer rate, which is used to price contracts worth trillions of dollars worldwide.
Source: The Telegraph
DECPG Weekly Global Economic Brief
January 17, 2014--The latest edition of Global Economic Prospects was released this week. The report notes that for the first time in five
years there are indications of a self-sustaining recovery in high-income economies, which is expected to contribute to an acceleration in global growth from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.5 percent in 2016.
Growth in developing economies is expected to pick up modestly, but to remain slower than in pre-crisis years, reflecting a downward adjustment to more sustainable growth. Headwinds from the inevitable normalization of monetary policy in high-income economies are expected to be offset by stronger high-income demand for developing countries' exports. While the most likely scenario is that of an orderly adjustment to the withdrawal of quantitative easing in the US, an abrupt reaction could expose vulnerabilities in developing economies with large external or domestic imbalances and rapid credit growth.
Source: World Bank
Europe, Japan and China funds fare well as equity investors put more cash to work
January 17, 2014--The week ending January 15 saw over $21 billion flow out of Money Market Funds as equity investors showed more energy, bidding up key developed market indexes to mult-year or record highs and helping EPFR Global-tracked Equity Funds record their biggest inflow since the fourth week of November.
Fund groups that carried some momentum into the New Year again fared well, with Europe Equity Funds absorbing over $4 billion, Japan Equity Funds taking in another $1.3 billion and flows into China Equity Funds hitting a 51 week high.
During a week when collective flows into all Equity Funds totaled $9.4 billion retail investors made their strongest showing since early August. But they continued to shun Emerging Markets Equity Funds, a group that last saw retail money in early 2Q13, and they were net redeemers from Bond Funds for the eighth time in the past 10 weeks.
Visit www.epfr.com for more info
Source: EPFR
Eurozone Stocks Climb Higher but Region Remains on Thin Ice: Russell Indexes and Russell Investments
January 17, 2014--The Russell Eurozone Index returned 0.7% in the first ten days of 2014, following a gain of nearly 25% in 2013, but Russell strategists warn that cracks may appear if deflation gathers strength
As of January 10, Greece was the Index's top performing country constituent year to date. It returned 10.7% with Portugal returning 7.3% and Austria posting a 5.2% gain. Russell Eurozone Index country constituents Germany (-0.5%), France (-0.7%) and Luxembourg (-1.3%) had negative year-to-date 2014 returns as of January 10.
Source: Russell Investments
ETFS Securities-Commodity ETP Quarterly -Key Trends in 2013 & Outlook for 2014
January 17, 2014--The report includes:
A comprehensive and fully up-to-date reference guide to investing in global commodity ETPs and indexes - no ETP type or geographic area is excluded. The report details the large and growing choice of commodity ETP exposures and strategies around the world.
Summary analysis of global commodity ETP flows, trading volumes and AUM trends. Includes a detailed analysis of the main trends in 2013 and the outlook for 2014.
Roll yield analysis (contango/backwardation) broken down by individual commodity and commodity sectors.
Useful fundamental commodity data and information. An updated and revised inventory trends section, positioning data, futures curve developments, commodity index compositions and weights.
view the ETF Securities Commodity ETP Quarterly-Key Trends in 2013 & Outlook for 2014
Source: ETF Securities
SPDR Weekly Report -Weekly Market Report
January 17, 2014--ECONOMIES: Retail sales rise moderately in the US. Business investment and hiring plans improve in Canada. Inflation is on target in the UK but remains well below target for the eurozone. Machine orders rise in Japan. Employment falls in Australia. Brazil's central
bank hikes again.
MARKETS: A fair start to the earnings season, and equities are mostly higher. Government bonds are bid on a mix of benign inflation,
dovish central bank rhetoric and disappointing data. EUR falls on dovish ECB rhetoric. CAD and AUD continue to weaken. Oil and gold are little changed.
NEXT WEEK PREVIEWED
SPOTLIGHT: The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan should each leave policy unchanged. Inflation readings will likely be benign in
Canada and Australia. The labor market continues to tighten in the UK.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
US
According to the Fed's latest BEIGE BOOK, the economy
expanded at a "moderate" pace throughout most of the
country from late November through the end of the year-
an upgrade from the more mixed 'modest to moderate "
pace highlighted in the previous Beige Book. Moreover,
the economic outlook was described as "positive in most
districts." Most Districts reported that retail activity was up.
And most also reported increases in nonfinancial services.
All Districts reported manufacturing activity up from a year
earlier. The latest reports also noted still generally improving
real estate markets for both residential and commercial
segments. Loan volumes reportedly haven’t changed much
for banks, but activity continues to increase across the energy
sector. Agricultural conditions were “generally strong and
improving.” Most Districts reported increases in hiring and
there were even some reports of strong labor demand, as well
as scattered reports of labor shortages.
For more information, including product fact sheets and related whitepapers:
Source: SSgA
Opec nudges up oil demand forecasts
January 16, 2014--Oil cartel Opec slightly nudged up its world oil demand growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 on Thursday, citing positive developments in Europe and North America.
For 2013, the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimated demand at 89.86 million barrels per day (mbd), up 0.94 mbd from demand in 2012.
Source: OPEC
Will Water Constrain Our Energy Future?
January 16, 2014--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
The world's energy systems are inextricably linked with water systems.
With demand rising for both resources, water scarcity can threaten the long-term viability of energy projects and hinder development.
To mitigate the risks of the challenge, the World Bank has launched Thirsty Energy, a global initiative to help countries prepare for an uncertain future now by quantifying tradeoffs and identifying synergies between water and energy resource management.
Energy and water security are crucial to human and economic development. The two resources are now more interconnected than ever--significant amounts of water are needed in almost all energy generation processes, from generating hydropower, to cooling and other purposes in thermal power plants, to extracting and processing fuels. Conversely, the water sector needs energy- mainly in the form of electricity -to extract, treat and transport water. Both energy and water are used in the production of crops, including those used to generate energy through biofuels.
The Infographic: Thirsty Energy--Energy and Water's Interdependence is now available.
Source: World Bank