DECPG Weekly Economic Brief
May 23, 2014--Disappointing first quarter GDP growth in the U.S., Euro Area and China contrasted with soaring activity in Japan and a broadly stable momentum in the rest of developing countries. Additional policy accommodation by the European Central Bank (ECB) could have large
spillover effects for developing countries through trade, capital flow and foreign exchange channels. Metal prices remain soft, but Nickel
gained more than 45 percent in value since the start of 2014 due to a mineral export ban in Indonesia.
GDP growth estimates for the first quarter have so far been mixed, often due to idiosyncratic or temporary factors. In high income countries, exceptionally harsh weather conditions in the U.S. hurt investment and exports, leading to stagnating activity, while disappointing data in Italy, France (partly due to a VAT hike) and the Netherlands (driven by a sharp contraction in gas production) capped euro area growth to an unchanged 0.8 percent (annualized q-o-q). The conflict over Crimea and Eastern Ukraine also provoked a sharp decline in Russian and Ukrainian GDP, down 4 and 12 percent respectively. In contrast, growth doubled in Germany to 3.2 percent, more than tripled in Spain to 2.4 percent and reached a breathtaking 5.9 percent in Japan, as durable consumption soared in advance of a sales tax hike in April.
In China, an early Lunar New Year holiday contributed to a sluggish 5.8 percent growth performance in Q1 but recent data confirmed the slowdown, prompting authorities to ramp up infrastructure spending and extend tax breaks to SMEs. In the rest of East Asia, activity contracted in Thailand due to political unrest and slowed in Malaysia and Indonesia, where policy tightening and a mineral export ban cooled activity. GDP growth improved modestly in Mexico to 1.2 percent, while estimates based on industrial production and survey data point to recovering activity in Columbia, Argentina, India, Turkey and weak but stable growth in Brazil.
Source: World Bank
Stoxx Q2/2014 Quarterly Review
STOXX CHANGES COMPOSITION OF BENCHMARK INDICES
Results of the second regular quarterly review to be effective on June 23, 2014
May 27, 2014--STOXX Limited, the market-moving provider of innovative, tradable and global index concepts, today announced the new composition of the STOXX Benchmark and their sub-and sector indices, among them the STOXX Europe 600 Index, STOXX North America 600 Index and STOXX Asia/Pacific 600 Index.
Effective as of the open of European markets on June 23, 2014, the following stocks will be added to and deleted from the STOXX Europe 600 Index and its respective size and sector indices:
Source: STOXX
First Bridge-Global ETF Sponsor Market Share
May 22, 2014--The global ETP industry ended April 2014 with assets of $2.5T. The growth in the space over the last several years has continued to attract new entrants as well as product launches from existing players.
There are now a little over 225 ETF sponsors globally. The table below shows the global market share numbers (as of end April 2014) for the top 15 ETF sponsors. The data is sourced from the First Bridge ETF database that includes all globally listed ETPs.
Source: First Bridge
IMD releases its 2014 World Competitiveness Yearbook Ranking
The US leads, Europe recovers, and big emerging markets struggle
A country's image abroad can also influence future competitiveness
May 22, 2014--IMD, a top-ranked global business school based in Switzerland, today announced its annual world competitiveness ranking. As part of its ranking of 60 economies for 2014, the IMD World Competitiveness Center also looks at perceptions of each country as a place to do business.
"The overall competitiveness story for 2014 is one of continued success in the US, partial recovery in Europe, and struggles for some large emerging markets," said Professor Arturo Bris, Director of the IMD World Competitiveness Center. "There is no single recipe for a country to climb the competitiveness rankings, and much depends on the local context."
Highlights of the 2014 ranking
The US retains the No. 1 spot in 2014, reflecting the resilience of its economy, better employment numbers, and its dominance in technology and infrastructure.
There are no big changes among the top ten. Small economies such as Switzerland (2), Singapore (3) and Hong Kong (4) continue to prosper thanks to exports, business efficiency and innovation.
view the World Competitiveness Ranking 2014
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Center
BlackRock calls for international fund redemption rules
May 22, 2014--BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is calling for international rules that could impose redemption fees for some kinds of funds, to cut the chances of damaging runs during times of market panic.
The company says regulators should eliminate any "first-mover advantage" to investors who sell out of a fund as market liquidity is starting to dry up.
Source: FT.com
ETP inflows pick up, with EM ETPs benefiting
May 22, 2014--April saw record fund flows into ETFs and ETPs as the overall economic outlook began to stabilise after a tumultuous first quarter says ETFGI,
the research and consultancy firms established by industry expert Deborah Fuhr. ETFs and ETPs listed globally gathered $34bn in net new assets in April which, when combined with a small positive market performance in the month, pushed assets in the global ETF/ETP industry to a new record high of $2.49trn...
Source: FTSE Global Markets
Four Game-Changers that Will Revolutionze Travel and Transport by 2025
May 21, 2014-- A new report released at the Annual Summit of the International Transport Forum today by the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, shows how travel and transport will be transformed by 2025.
According to the report, Connected World: Hyperconnected Travel and Transportation in Action, the lack of cross-industry cooperation, conflicting policies and missing standards, and the inherent risks of hyperconnectivity are the main barriers for seamless travel and transport. These barriers, notes the report, can be overcome through four solutions based largely on existing technology: a game-changer for using intermodal travel; a future traffic management system for megacities; a new answer for visa, airport security and border control processes; and logistics optimization.
view the Connected World: Hyperconnected Travel and Transportation in Action report
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
LSE nears $3bn Russell deal
May 20, 2014--London Stock Exchange Group PLC is in exclusive talks to buy Russell Investments, the index and asset management business, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
According to the FT, the deal for Russell Investments could be valued at USD3 billion. However, talks "may still fall apart" and no outcome is expected for at least a couple of weeks...
Source: Morningstar
ETF Securities-Precious Metals Weekly-Fall in US Real Yields Confounds the Consensus and Boosts the Gold Price
May 19, 2014--U.S real yields have declined sharply in 2014, confounding the consensus and supporting the gold price. The US 10yr yield dropped to 2.5% last week, declining 50bps
from 3.0% at the end of 2013. The fall has gone against consensus expectations and also helps explain why the consensus has been so wrong on the performance of the gold price
so far this year. Real (inflation-adjusted) yields have fallen even more, with US CPI rising from 1.5% at the end of 2013, to 2.0% in April.
This has led to around a 1% decline in the US 10yr real yield in just five months. If inflation continues to creep up, while bond yields remain subdued, the gold price may continue to rally.
Platinum and palladium prices continue to rise as strikes in South Africa turn violent. Last week, platinum led the precious metals higher with a 2.4% gain as South Africa strikes turned violent, adding to concerns about possible supply shortages. The palladium price reached its highest closing level since August 2011, with price support also boosted by Russian sanction fears as Russia remains the world’s largest palladium producer.
Meanwhile, reports on Friday that Russia’s state may be considering buying palladium, if true, would also likely be price supportive. Labour strikes at the mines in South Africa have resulted in over 13% of platinum and 9% of palladium global mine supply lost to the strikes so far. Amplats, Implats and Lonmin have declared force majeure on some of their contracts, highlighting the difficulty in getting supplies of metal to buyers. Even if the strikes are resolved soon and prices dip, we would view the declines as a potential longer-term buying opportunity as supply demand deficits and production costs continue to rise.
Source: ETF Securities
For investors, diamonds might be the new gold
May 19, 2014--Gold has lost its luster--at least as an investment. Since hitting $1,900 an ounce in the summer of 2011,the price of the shiny metal has plunged some 30%.
That fall has prompted an exodus from gold-backed ETFs. But now investors are setting their sights on another precious material: diamonds.
Excitement has been building in recent months around the potential of diamonds to become a veritable asset class for the first time.
Source: CNN Money