Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF Working Papers-How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
March 5, 2018--Summary:
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over.
Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
view the IMF Working Papers-How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
Source: IMF
FSB publishes Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017
March 5, 2018--The Financial Stability Board (FSB) today published the Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017. The Report presents the results of the FSB's seventh annual monitoring exercise to assess global trends and risks from shadow banking activities.
The 2017 monitoring exercise covers data up to end-2016 from 29 jurisdictions, which together represent over 80% of global GDP, including, for the first time, Luxembourg. Also for the first time, the Report assesses the involvement of non-bank financial entities in China in credit intermediation that may pose financial stability risks from shadow banking, such as maturity/liquidity mismatches and leverage.
view the FSB Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017
Source: Financial Stability Board (FSB)
Record oil output from US, Brazil, Canada and Norway to keep global markets well supplied
March 5, 2018--Oil production growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020, but more investment will be needed to boost output after that, according to the International Energy Agency's latest annual report on oil markets.
Over the next three years, gains from the United States alone will cover 80% of the world's demand growth, with Canada, Brazil and Norway-all IEA family members-able to cover the rest, according to Oil 2018, the IEA's five-year market analysis and forecast.
view the IEA Oil 2018 summary report
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
ETF Securities-Precious Metals Monitor-- February 2018
March 5, 2018--Key Highlights
Volatility, Inflation, and Tariffs...Oh My!
February may be the shortest month, but it was packed with several market drivers. The return of volatility caught many investors off guard at the onset of the month. Sparked by concerns around rising inflation, US 10-year yields neared 3.0% while the S&P 500 saw a 10% drawdown with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility (VIX) Index hitting its highest level since August 2015.
Comments from the new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, Jerome Powell, served to further spook markets this month as market expectations increased for further rate hikes in 2018. The month closed on news of trade tensions following an announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Throughout this month of volatility, precious metals served to mitigate against the market drawdown and related risk factors. If continued market and geopolitical uncertainty persists in 2018, investors may further increase allocations to precious metals as core risk management tools.
Source: etfsecurities.com
Too-clever ETFs are a car crash waiting to happen
March 5, 2018--At what point does innovation become dangerous?
The long winding road of financial inventiveness is littered with innumerable crashes, and observers must now be wondering whether the exchange traded funds industry is in danger of becoming too clever for its own good. The standard narrative of...
Source: FT.com
Women in ETFs and Five Partner Organizations Ring the Bell for Gender Equality at 59 Stock Exchanges Globally
March 2, 2018--For the 4th year, a global collaboration across 59 stock exchanges around the world plan to "Ring the Bell for Gender Equality," to celebrate International Women's Day 2018 (March 8th).
The events are a partnership between Women in ETFs, UN Global Compact, UN Women, the Sustainable Stock Exchanges (SSE) Initiative, IFC, and the World Federation of Exchanges, to raise awareness about the business case for women,s economic empowerment and the opportunities for the private sector to advance gender equality and sustainable development.
Source: Women in ETFs
Libor's Climb Past 2% is Unnerving Some Investors
March 2, 2018--A benchmark used to set borrowing costs on trillions of dollars worth of loans is on the rise, stirring concerns about the effect of higher U.S. interest rates on consumers and businesses.
The three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, surpassed 2% this week for the first time since 2008.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Volatility Makes a Comeback: February Market Review
March 2, 2018--Volatility returned to markets in February, whiplashing investors accustomed to a long stretch of solid and stable returns, and causing the worst monthly performance in two years for global equities.
During February, the STOXX(R) Global 1800 Index slumped 4.1%1 when measured in dollars, its first month of losses in 16. It was also the worst monthly performance since Jan. 2016. The index fell only half that much when measured in euros, after a 1.8% decline in the common currency over the month increased the relative value of dollar-denominated holdings in the index.
Source: STOXX
Index providers: benchmark larks
March 2, 2018--High profit margins have not invited more competition
Source: FT.com
The World Federation of Exchanges & McKinsey joint report on fintech in capital markets infrastructure industry reveals likely future innovations & opportunities
March 1, 2018--The World Federation of Exchanges ("The WFE"), the global industry group for exchanges and CCPs, today published a joint report with global management consultancy McKinsey & Company's Banking & Securities Practice ("McKinsey"), on the fintech landscape in the Capital Markets Infrastructure (CMI) industry.
The report-entitled Fintech Decoded: Capturing the opportunity in capital markets infrastructure-looks at potential uses of new technologies across the sector, and areas likely to see the most innovation. It also outlines several strategic priorities that Capital Markets Infrastructure Providers (CMIP)-such as exchanges, CCPs, trading venues and securities depositories-can adopt to ensure they maximise the fintech opportunity in their markets.
view the Fintech Decoded: Capturing the opportunity in capital markets infrastructure report
Source: WFE (The World Federation of Exchanges)
