Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF Working paper-Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises
July 6, 2018--Summary:
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model.
Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
view the IMF Working paper-Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises
Source: IMF
Commodity ETF Flows Show Investors Bracing for a Trade War
July 5, 2018--Trading spikes for soybean fund as tariffs loom on exports
Copper fund sees outflows; gold gains in safe-haven bid
The U.S.-China trade war's about to see its first shots fired, and investors in commodity exchange-traded funds spent the last month getting ready.
The group pulled the most money since February from an ETF that tracks copper, as investors grew concerned tariffs will sink the price of the industrial metal.
Source: Bloomberg
Prolonged low interest rates could affect financial stability, central banks find
July 5, 2018-- Low market interest rates for a long time could have implications for financial stability as well as for the health of individual financial institutions, a report by the Committee on the Global Financial System finds.
Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates identifies channels through which a "low-for-long" interest rate scenario might affect the health of banks, insurance companies and private pension funds
This scenario would be harder on insurers and pension funds than on banks. Even though the CGFS analysis did not show that measures of firms' financial soundness dropped significantly, prolonged low rates could still involve material risks to financial stability. In particular, a "snapback", involving an unexpected sudden increase in market rates from currently low levels, could affect banks' solvency and create liquidity issues for insurers and pension funds.
This was over 10 times the net inflows gathered during April. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Source: ETFGI
ETFGI reports assets invested in active ETFs and ETPs listed globally reach record high of US$90.1 billion at the end of May 2018
Highlights
Source: ETFGI
America's wealthy are moving to cash as market enthusiasm hits a wall
These investors may be amassing dry powder for better opportunities to buy into the market.
Source: CNBC.com
World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018-Less Even Expansion, Rising Trade Tensions
Growth projections have been revised down for the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom, reflecting negative surprises to activity in early 2018. Among emerging market and developing economies, growth prospects are also becoming more uneven, amid rising oil prices, higher yields in the United States, escalating trade tensions, and market pressures on the currencies of some economies with weaker fundamentals. Growth projections have been revised down for Argentina, Brazil, and India, while the outlook for some oil exporters has strengthened.
The balance of risks has shifted further to the downside, including in the short term. The recently announced and anticipated tariff increases by the United States and retaliatory measures by trading partners have increased the likelihood of escalating and sustained trade actions. view the IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018-Less Even Expansion, Rising Trade Tensions
Source: IMF
DECPG Global Weekly-June 29, 2018
EMDE assets remained under pressure
Oil prices moved higher U.S. GDP growth in 2018Q1 was revised down slightly; PCE inflation firmed in May; consumer confidence dipped in June. The final reading of U.S. GDP growth in 2018Q1 came in at 2 percent (q/q, saar), below the previous estimate of 2.2 percent and the 2.9 percent growth recorded in 2017Q4. The slight downward revision mainly reflected a steeper-than-previously estimated slowdown in consumer spending.
Source: World Bank
Currency hedged ETFs/ETPs listed globally gathered US$3.13 billion in net inflows during May.
Year-to-date, assets invested in currency hedged ETFs/ETPs increased by 0.01%.
July 2, 2018--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today that assets invested in active ETFs and ETPs listed globally reached a record high of US$90.1 Bn at the end of May 2018; representing an increase in assets of US$4.04 Bn from the previous record of US$86.1 Bn set at the end of April 2018. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Assets invested in actively-managed ETFs/ETPs listed globally increased by $4.04 Bn during May to reach a record $90.1 Bn.
In May 2018, actively-managed ETFs/ETPs listed globally saw net inflows of $3.20 Bn.
Active fixed income ETFs gathered the largest inflows in May, with net new assets of $1.83 Bn during the month, more than half of all active inflows.
July 2, 2018--A CNBC survey finds that millionaires are more likely to increase cash and bonds than stocks in the next year.
Wealthy investors age 55 and under, as well as investors with $5 million or more, are the most likely groups to be pulling back on U.S. stocks.
July 2, 2018--Global growth is projected to reach 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, in line with the forecast of the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO), but the expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting. The rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronized. In the United States, near-term momentum is strengthening in line with the April WEO forecast, and the US dollar has appreciated by around 5 percent in recent weeks.
June 29, 2018--TAKING STOCK
U.S. GDP growth in 2018Q1 was revised down slightly; PCE inflation firmed in May; consumer confidence dipped in June
Euro Area headline inflation picked up in June
Japan's unemployment rate fell to record low in May; retail sales growth slowed
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